Is A.I. The Way Forward For The Democrats?
“Up to half of the work at the company is now done by AI” - Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce - 1
There will now “be new hires only if managers could prove that artificial intelligence could not do the job” - Luis von Ahn, CEO of Duolingo - 2
“AI is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the US" - Jim Farley, CEO of Ford - 3
“AI leaders… think they’re gonna put everyone out of work” - 4
One of the key reasons we are suffering under the Trump regime is that the Democrats were too slow to understand how deeply disruptive globalization & factory automation were to blue collar workers.
AI is about to create truly massive disruptions to white collar worker’ lives; can the Democratic Party help these Americans, and itself, by getting ahead of the curve this time?
Computer Science is the Canary in the AI Mine
Why do I think a massive white collar disruption is coming? Because it's already starting and the clearest sign can be seen in what's happening to recent computer science graduates. Not surprisingly, because AI most naturally & easily automates computer science jobs, its powerful ability to eliminate legions of entry level, white collar jobs is first being seen here:
"Among [recent] college graduates computer science & engineering majors are facing some of the highest unemployment rates, 6.1% & 7.5% respectively... more than double the rate among recent… art history graduates, which is just 3%"
“The unfortunate thing right now, specifically for recent college grads, is those positions that are most likely to be automated are the entry-level positions that they would be seeking" https://tinyurl.com/3tsuvbj9
Today, AI is replacing entry-level workers but as it gets better over time, it will replace people higher & higher up the corporate ladder. And it's getting better very, very fast:“While Moore's Law describes a doubling of computational power every two years, AI's computational power doubles approximately every six months.” https://tinyurl.com/ms5e4dnu
White Collar Workers are Heavily Democratic
Although “white-collar worker” isn’t synonymous with “college-educated voter,” there’s a strong overlap. Most white-collar professions—such as managers, professionals, academics, and administrative roles—require at least a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Roughly 55% of white-collar workers—extrapolating from college-educated voters—identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. For those with postgraduate degrees (common among many professionals), it’s even higher, around 61% according to Pew Research.
So white collar workers (who are the majority of US workers) are a natural constituency for the Democrats, ready to be mobilized by any Democrat far sighted enough to see the changes AI will be, and is already making, to the office workforce.
Enter Zohran MamdanI.
Jonathan Mahler’s NYTimes Op-Ed explaining Mamdani's “surprise” Democratic primary win in NYC nicely lays out what is motivating his core supporters (who, surprise, are “college-educated New Yorkers who earn roughly $70,000 to $140,000 a year”):
“The next wave of technological change has arrived and the disruption to this class of workers has only just begun… The outcry of college-educated professionals is being expressed as “the rent is too damn high,” but their fears and underlying anxieties are about something more existential: the dawning realization that huge numbers of jobs are no longer secure and that more and more of us can be replaced by machines.
Mahler lays it out so well, I'll let him make the argument:
Ensuring AI Helps America not Devastate it is the Way Forward for Democrats
Donald Trump saw massive disruptions to blue collar workers & proposed big, fanciful solutions to lessen the pain. Both Parties initially dismissed & demeaned his solutions because they were unrealistic/impratical but his supporters didn't care about their practicality, they read them as signs he cared about & would fight for them, so voted for him.
Zohran MamdanI sees massive disruptions to white collar workers & has proposed big, fanciful solutions to lessen the pain. Now, too many establishment Democrats have dismissed & demeaned his solutions because they are unrealistic/impratical yet a large majority of NYC’s blue and white collar Democrats didn't care about the practicality of Mamdani’s solutions, they read them as signs he cared about & would fight for them, so voted for him.
AI’s devastation is coming if corporations are solely in charge of it and voters are already showing in NYC & elsewhere that they’re fearful & will vote accordingly. Like most technology, AI could be used for good or bad and as Corporate America races ahead to deploy it with zero guardrails from the Trump regime, the Democratic Party has an historic opportunity to help both America and itself.
The devastation of AI as implemented by Corporations & the rich if left to their own devices would powerfully resonate with the white collar majority of the US workforce and put the wind back into the Democratic Party’s sails. And when combined with messaging about Trump’s tax cuts for the rich and benefits cuts for the working & middle classes the Democrats would have a strong set of economic messages that could appeal and importantly motivate a large cross section of the electorate.
PS: A good first step on this new path would be for the Democratic establishment to stop vacillating and strongly get behind Mamdani.